The main dishes to remember:
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XRP slipped almost 20% in 45 days, consolidating itself in a triangle descending near the support of $ 2.70.
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Onchain and ultimately data show the reset of the lever effect and the first signs of accumulation, reducing the risks of liquidation.
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The confluence of a gap of fair value, fibonacci retracement lines and the fractal model indicates a potential rebound of 60% to 85% in the fourth quarter.
The price of XRP (XRP) fell by almost 20% in the last 45 days, continuing a correction which has brought the price to a key support. On the daily graphic, XRP is consolidated in a descending triangle model, increasing the risk of another movement below the support at $ 2.70.
The XRP term data underline the cooling market. The open interest has increased from $ 11 billion to $ 7.5 billion during the same period, reflecting a reduced speculative exposure.
However, positive development is that the estimated lever of the token on the binance has reset its annual average. The relationship between the interests open compared to the exchange reserves indicates that traders are no longer too extensive on a high lever effect. This reduces the probability of cascade liquidation and supports price stability during corrections.
Onchain indicators also indicate the first signs of reversal. The Net Paker volume has come closer to neutral, supported by an increase in delta (CVD) of aggregate cumulative volume (CVD), which follows if buyers or sellers dominate. The discrepancy suggests that holders can already be in accumulation mode.
The long -term positioning adds to the image. The MCV of aggregated term contracts has regularly decreased, while funding rates have normalized at quarterly levels, indicating that overcrowded positions have been eliminated.
Related: bets on XRP 2017 style gains could be extremely risky in 2025
The lower XRP price could be close
On the daily graphic, XRP continues to negotiate in a descending triangle, with a price testing the support several times. A difference of fair daily value / weekly between $ 2.35 and $ 2.65 appears to be the key area to be monitored. A push below $ 2.70 could lead XRP to this beach, where a reaction is likely.
The importance of this gap is reinforced by the Fibonacci trace levels, the range from 0.5 to 0.618 lurking closely with the area from $ 2.35 to $ 2.65. Historically, such a confluence has strengthened the probability of price stabilization and a rebound.
Adding weight to this perspective, Cointelegraph noted that the structure of the XRP market looks like a fractal Q1 model, which preceded a clear break. If the model reproduces, XRP could see gains from 60% to 85% in the fourth quarter.
Crypto Trader Javon Marks highlights a similar bias, noting that “in the current state of the market, little changed with the objective of $ XRP at $ 4.80 while its prices continue to maintain a key level of $ 2.47.”
Marks added that “as long as this level is maintained, prices can only be prepared for another increase of + 66%”.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and negotiation movement involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when they make a decision.