The Bitcoin price could see a significant advantage in 2026, cutting the traditional four -year market cycle, according to Bitwise Matt Hougan’s investment director.
The prediction comes as other analysts are divided that Bitcoin (BTC) is moving away from its historic model or will follow the reduction cycle in traditional half and the peak in the coming months.
Bitcoin can be in “good years”, says Hougan
“I bet 2026 is an increase year,” said Hougan in an X video on Friday. “I largely think that we are in a few good years,” added Hougan.
Hougan said that the division cycle in half of four years “died” for several reasons, including the bitcoin of half of the “half as large” every four years, and the interest rate cycle is positive for the crypto. Since April, US President Donald Trump has publicly pressure that the president of the federal reserve Jerome Powell to reduce interest rates, a potentially optimistic catalyst for Bitcoin, because lower rates make traditional assets such as less attractive bonds and depots for investors.
Hougan also said that the significant chances of prices have decreased as industry gained more clarity on regulations. “The risk of blowing is attenuated, due to the improvement of the regulations and the institutionalization of the space,” said Hougan.
He said that, taking into account the current regulatory process and the early stage of institutional adoption, Bitcoin probably increased in this cycle than historical trends suggest:
“The long-term pro-Crypto forces will overwhelm the classic” four-year cycle “forces, since they exist, and that 2026 will be a happy new year.”
Hougan said that the most important “cyclic style risk” for Bitcoin is the rise of Bitcoin cash companies. “Bear look and are important,” said Hougan.
The active manager Vaneck recently echoed the same concern, warning that companies accumulating Bitcoin by issuing new actions or taking debts are particularly vulnerable.
Vaneck said these companies could be raised if the Bitcoin price is decreasing sharply.
Bitcoin more likely to see a “stable boom sustained”
However, Hougan has planned that the Bitcoin prices rally will be stable rather than an active short -term. “I think it’s more” a supported stable boom “than the super cycle,” he said.
“I could be wrong and I am sure there will be significant volatility,” he added.
It only comes from days after the CEO of Cryptocywife Ki Young Ju declared that the cycle theory of four years of Bitcoin “is dead”.
In relation: Bitcoin Bulls ‘in control’ while the BTC price bounces at $ 118,000
“My predictions were based on it – buy when the whales accumulate, sell when the retail trade joins. But this model no longer holds,” said Ju.
“Last cycle, whales sold in retail. This time, old whales sell for new long -term whales. Institutional adoption is greater than we thought,” added Ju.
However, not everyone says that the model has changed. The Crypto Rekt Capital analyst recently warned that Bitcoin can only have a few months of expansion of prices in the cycle, especially if he follows the same historical model from 2020.
Rekt explained that if the Bitcoin cycle follows the 2020 model, the market will likely reach a peak in October, 550 days after the reduction in half of Bitcoin in April 2024.
Review: Robinhood’s tokenized actions aroused a legal hornet nest