Bitcoin market cycles are not anchored around its events in half, as believed to be raw, according to analyst James Check, who says that other factors stimulate Bull and Bear cycles.
“In my opinion, Bitcoin has known three cycles, and they are not anchored around halvery,” said Check on Wednesday, referring to the cup by the blockchain of mining awards which generally occurs every four years.
He said market cycles are anchored around “adoption trends and market structure”, the 2017 market and background 2022 being the transitional points.
Checking has highlighted the previous three cycles as “adoption cycle” from 2011 to 2018, motivated by early retail adoption, an “adolescence cycle” from 2018 to 2022, driven by the “Wild West Boom and Bust with the lever”, and the current “maturity cycle” from 2022, driven by “institutional maturity and stability”.
“Things have changed after the 2022 bear market, and people who assume that the past will probably repeat the signal because they look at historical noise,” he said.
The cycle theory in half always on the right track
Check’s analysis goes against the popular theory that the cycles of the Bitcoin Market (BTC) generally extend four years and are anchored around its events in half, which induces a tender shock due to the reward of blocks and more important demand.
It was at this time that the peak year of the Haussier market occurs the year following the event by half, as it did in 2013, 2017, 2021, and seems to be on the right track to repeat the model in 2025.
Check also said that Bitcoin is “literally the only other end of game assets next to gold”, which implies that the current cycle can be extended.
End of the four -year cycle?
There have been a number of recent predictions that the traditional four -year cycle is over, and this bullish market could extend next year due to institutional participation.
In relation: Is the four-year crypto cycle dead? Believers become stronger
Earlier this month, the director of chief investments of Bitwise, Matthew Hougan, said about the cycle that he was “not officially finished until we saw positive yields in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say: I think the 4-year cycle is over.”
The entrepreneur “Techdev” told his 546,000 subscribers on X on Tuesday that “the dynamics of the economic cycle was all that was necessary to understand that of Bitcoin” and illustrated the peaks and the hollows of previous cycles.
The analysis suggests that the changes in downstream phases to the bullish phases are motivated by the dynamics of liquidity rather than by the traditional four -year ball cycle, and the only difference this time is the extensive optimistic phase.
The current cycle ends, says Glassnode
Glassnode analysts said on August 20 that Bitcoin was still following his traditional cycle models. On Tuesday, they reiterated that the recent profits and high sales pressure “suggest that the market has entered a late phase of the cycle”.
Meanwhile, the position merchant Bob Loukas had a more pragmatic vision of market cycles.
“I often hear,” there are no more bitcoin cycles “. The reality is that we are still in cycles. We cannot help each other. We pomp until it breaks out, because we just want more. Then we start again. Only the difference is the quantity of shells where you avoid and the speed with which you reset. “
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