The main dishes to remember:
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Bitcoin broke $ 114,000 because the data has shown that IPP inflation was strongly cooled in August.
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Merchants believe that data could push the federal reserve to reduce rates in September.
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ONCHAIN long -term trends show short -term turbulence occurring after reduction in infants, then in the longer term.
Bitcoin (BTC) jumped above $ 114,000 for the first time since August 24, extending its recent recovery because American inflation data came much cooler than expected. This decision follows the publication of the August producer price index (PPI), which fell 2.6% from one year to the next against forecasts of 3.3%. The basic PPI, which removes food and energy, fell to 2.8%, well below the consensus of 3.5%.
On a monthly basis, PPI has even become negative, marking only the second contraction since March 2024, according to the Kobeissi newsletter. Adding to the dominant tone, inflation figures from July were also revised lower, the PPI title adjusted to 3.1% of 3.4% and basic PPI at 3.4% to 3.7%. In addition to the historical revision of data on American jobs earlier this week, which has erased 911,000 jobs from the last 12 months, the markets consider interest rate reductions as more and more imminent.
The market analyst stressed that producers’ inflation trends are often lagging behind those of the Consumer Price (IPC) index of one to three months. This means that sticky ICP readings could always appear in the short term, although the wider trajectory points towards cooling inflation in the fourth quarter. Although the slowdown in the PPI is encouraging, the cover flows can continue until the IPC confirms the softening trend.
Related: Bitcoin must reach $ 104,000 to repeat the enlons of the past bullish market: research
The historical reaction of bitcoin to Fed frequency cuts
With the interest rate reductions of the federal reserve which seem extremely likely, the history of Bitcoin shows a coherent turbulence scheme followed by an advantage. Two onchain measurements, the market value of the value achieved (MVRV) and the whale ratio, put more light.
MVRV compares the Bitcoin market capitalization to its capitalization achieved (the overall value to which the parts have moved). When MVRV hovers nearly 1, the BTC is generally undervalued and levels close to 3 to 4 suggest overheated assessments.
Meanwhile, the whales ratio measures the share of large support transactions in exchange flows, showing when the whales send parts to sell or remove them for storage.
Crypto data emphasizes that in March 2020, interest rate reductions sent MVRV to collapse around 1 while panic has wiped out the speculative gains of investors, while the whale ratio increased on the heavy sale of whales.
While the liquidity flooded, the MVRV bounces and the whales moved to the accumulation, supplying the Bull Run of Bitcoin 2020-2021. A similar model repeated at the end of the softening cycle of the end of 2024, when the two indicators reflected short -term sale before stabilizing in another rally.
If the story rhymes, the Fed ends in 2025 could again bring the initial volatility, but overall, the liquidity backdrop for Bitcoin to approach new heights.
Related: Bitcoin traders reduce the risk on macro concerns, but the BTC market structure targets $ 120,000
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and negotiation movement involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when they make a decision.