Traders who predict Bitcoin will reach its high price of the cycle by the end of this year may include the principles of statistics, says a Bitcoin analyst.
This occurs while several analysts have planned the result of Bitcoin (BTC) in recent times.
“Anyone who thinks Bitcoin should peak in this year’s fourth quarter does not include statistics or probability,” Planci said in a post on Friday.
“From the point of view of statistics and probabilities, it is equivalent to switching a piece and obtaining tails three times in a row, then betting all your money according to which the fourth flip must be tails,” said Planc, explaining that the fact of relying on the three preceding ramblings does not provide sufficient statistically significant data.
No “fundamental reason” so that Bitcoin peaks in the fourth quarter
The analyst also argued that the reduction cycle in half is no longer relevant for Bitcoin, following a recent debate in industry on its relevance, in particular with the rise of Bitcoin cash companies and significant entries in Bitcoin Bitcoin Etf based in the United States.
“There is no fundamental reason-other than a psychological and self-fulfilling prophecy-so that the peak occurs in the fourth quarter of 2025,” he said. The fourth quarter has always been the most efficient quarter on average for Bitcoin since 2013, with an average yield of 85.42%, according to Coinglass.
However, if the reduction cycle in half is still in motion, Bitcoin could fall into a downward trend in October, analysts previously underlined.
Merchants have been divided lately to find out if Bitcoin will culminate at the end of the year.
Industry debate if the Haussier market will last in 2026
On August 17, CEO of Canary Capital, Steven McClurg, said that there was “more than 50% like Bitcoin went to the range of 140 to 150 this year before seeing another bear market next year”.
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Others expect the Haussier market to continue until 2026. The director of investments in Bitwise, Matt Hougan, said in July: “I bet that 2026 is a year of increase.”
Meanwhile, several analysts predicted that Bitcoin could reach $ 250,000 before the end of the year. In April 2025, the co-founder of Bitmex, Arthur Hayes, projected this level, and just a month later, in May, the research director of the Unchained market, Joe Burnett, made the same prediction.
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