The main dishes to remember:
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The pointed bitcoin rebound after Jackson Hole collapsed in a lower -down weekly candle.
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ONCHAIN data shows $ 105,000 like key support such as medium -sized wallets are sold.
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Seasonal weakness and FNB BTC fatigue increase the risk of decrease from $ 100,000 to $ 92,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) posted a sharp rebound on Friday, winning 3.91% at $ 117,300, against $ 111,700 after the dominant comments of the Jackson Hole Symposium increased risk appetites.
He has marked the strongest daily performance of the BTC since July 10, fueling optimism for another step towards new heights of all time. However, Momentum quickly evaporated, the Bitcoin reversing on weekends and the sliding at $ 110,600 on Monday.
A low -costly weekly engulfing candle underlines the downward vulnerability, because ONCHAIN data indicate a wide distribution between holders.
Glassnode data show that all BTC portfolio cohorts have now moved to distribution, led by group 10–100 BTC. Synchronized behavior through wallet sizes highlights uniform sales pressure, weighing on price stability.
Similarly, analyst Boris Vest Notes A division through the behavior of the wallet: small carriers (0–1 BTC) have regularly accumulated from the peak, while the wallets 1 to 10 BTC resumed the purchase below $ 107,000. On the other hand, the portfolios of 10 to 100 BTC overturned to net sellers after $ 118,000, while major holders greater than 1,000 BTC remain coherent distributors.
However, the group of 100 to 1,000 BTC is divided between accumulation and distribution around $ 105,000, the marking as the key support area and the last bastion before major corrections.
The price data made Bitcoin underline this inflection. The price made for holders of one to three months is at $ 111,900, while cohorts from three to six months and 6 to 12 months are anchored much lower at $ 91,630 and $ 89,200, respectively.
The wide difference reflects short -term positioning in the short term near recent peaks, compared to longer -term holders with bases closer to $ 90,000.
Market analysis suggests that if Bitcoin loses $ 105,000, the lack of dense cost support between current levels and $ 90,000 could speed up the momentum. Such ventilation could force recent buyers to capitulate, leaving the range from $ 92,000 to $ 89,000 as the next large request zone.
Related: LATE LATE Bitcoin is destroyed as price calls of less than $ 110,000 BTC become stronger
Bitcoin seasonality and ETF fatigue undertake
The current withdrawal is also aligned with the seasonal trends of Bitcoin. Historically, from August to September marked a period of weakness, often amplified by the “month of ghosts” of Asia, which takes place this year from August 23 to September 21. Cointelegraph indicated that this period has often coincided with mild risk appetite and profit among traders.
Since 2017, Bitcoin has displayed an average drop in ghosts of 21.7%, with notable reductions of –39.8% in 2017 and –23% in 2021. On the basis of these averages, a retirement to the range of $ 105,000 to $ 100,000 remains consistent with seasonal models and technical support areas.
Adding to the prudent tone, the merchant Crypto Roman Trading Flags structural risks in the current BTC rally. The analyst said that BTC / EUR had not recorded a new summit of all time since last year, which suggests that the recent increase is more closely linked to an American dollar weakened than biological demand.
Roman also warns that the launching enthusiasm of Bitcoin Bitcoin exchanger (ETF) can be discolored, with a higher exhaustion of past distribution phases.
Related: Bitcoin Og Whales to blame for the painful climb of the BTC: Willy Woo
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and negotiation movement involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when they make a decision.