Bitcoin (BTC) begins the first full week in August at a crossroads while the nerves on the market combine with a BTC price rebound.
-
After rebounding from a three -week base, the BTC price action fuels mixed targets with greater volatility in August expected.
-
The market environment is now fundamentally different from the old heights of all Bitcoin times from January, the analysis indicates.
-
The macro-conditions keep the focus on the federal reserve as bets reduction of the September interest rate return.
-
Bitcoin Hodlers organized a mass sale at the beginning of the month, even the whales reducing the exhibition.
-
Bitcoin demand, however, remains in place firmly, helping to add the context to the nerves of the short -term market.
$ 116,500 becomes a new “loving” BTC price
After traveling less than $ 112,000 last week, Bitcoin divides opinion in the form of Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data shows a thrust at $ 115,000.
The concerns concerning a larger BTC price correction contrasts with the belief that the retrace is finished and that the BTC / USD even prepares new heights of all time.
$ BTC The graph could not be more optimistic.
RESTEST OF ATH ✅ ✅
Daily close above SMA 50 ✅
Now BTC looks good for a new ATH. pic.twitter.com/jzvfir4cjt
– bitbull (@Akabull_) August 4, 2025
“$ BTC continued its sequence to fix the top or bottom in the first week of the month. We will have to see if August will be different, ”summed up the popular merchant Daan Crypto summarized in a part of his latest analysis on X.
“What we know is that the current monthly summit ($ 116,000) has very low chance of holding because we have never seen a monthly wick of this little one in the past 4 years.”
Daan Crypto Trades compared the recent price movements to those of 2025, concluding that volatility has so far been insufficient.
“The current up to low passage is also only about 3.6%,” he noted.
“There is also a very great probability that we will make a larger movement this month. The smallest monthly difference to large in one month is about 10% for the BTC in its past 4 years. This of course says nothing about management.”
The compatriot Crypto Caesar also watched a “big rebound” for the start of the Tradfi negotiation week while comparing the current price action for movements seen since May.
By analyzing the liquidity of the exchange book, the popular commentator Thekingfisher has in the process of $ 116,500 as a key level to which short BTC positions would be liquidated.
“Most merchants are probably looking at prizes, but Smart Money knows that this is where fuel for a move,” he told $ 116,500 a “magnet”.
Bitcoin Trend Line holds the key to the already price action
When he reached old summits of $ 109,300 in January, Bitcoin saw a retirement that turned out to be long – and painful – for the bulls.
By April, BTC / USD was in plumbing multimonthe stockings of less than $ 75,000, having put a reduction against the summits of more than 30%.
Half-year in rapid front, and the pair is down almost 10% compared to its last record peak, leading to comparisons with the price of prices earlier in the year.
For the popular popular merchant, however, there are few reasons to think that Bitcoin will simply repeat the behavior of the old summits.
“Is the January price action repeat now?” He questioned Sunday in a thread X on Sunday.
“The reversal of the AP was almost identical to the summits because it is a common scheme for withdrawal after having reduced the momentum. However, the current situation is very different and it is unlikely that the AP is repeated.”
CRYPUNEVO noted that January had seen a trip below the exponential mobile average of 50 days (EMA), which then overturned in resistance.
The 50 -day EMA trend line is currently close to $ 112,900, with a price by seeing a daily life below August 2.
“In January, we saw the 1D50EMA become a resistance – I doubt that we see that now. I think that a deviation below a support of $ 110,000 should probably hold well, “continues the wire.
CRYPNUVEVO said that “the structure and context of the market” differ in January, pointing to the growing chances of a reduction in the American interest rate in September.
Consensus again promotes the drop in the September rate
With less economic data in the United States, the federal reserve is itself in the spotlight this week.
The confrontation with President Donald Trump continues on interest rates, that the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell and other officials, chose not to reduce to their last meeting.
Powell is already faced with calls to resign from Trump on politics, which the latter considers too restrictive and costly to the economy.
“Powell should be set up for pasture”, “demanded Trump in an article on Truth Social on August 1.
Mixed inflation data and a solid labor market have enabled the Fed to hold on its course, but the most recent job figures have doubted doubt about long -term rate reductions.
Market expectations are therefore, but are now back to promote an initial reduction of 0.25% at the next Fed meeting in September, according to data from the Fedwatch tool of the CME group.
In the coming days, there will be appearances of several Fed personalities, including the vice-president of the supervision Michelle Bowman, who previously reported that it would be open to a drop in July.
The results of the profits, on the other hand, continue to achieve a context of stiffening of American trade rates.
“Volatility has returned while August officially starts with the booming profits season,” summed up the letter of the Kobeissi letter in a thread on Sunday.
BTC Price Dip unites big and small sellers
Bitcoin, which plunges up to new stocks of three weeks under $ 112,000, came in the middle of a continuous sale involving everyone, small retail investors with giant whales.
The data from the ONCHAIN Analytics Cryptochant platform followed the inputs to exchanges and concluded that a decision of disintegration on the market scale was underway.
Only August 1, more than 40,000 BTC exchanges managed to lose compared to the moment when he evolved – and that only with short -term holders (STHS), entities shake for six months or less.
At the same time, the exchange whale ratio, which follows the proportion of inputs of whale wallets, reached the “dominant” levels.
“When large deposits coincide with whales dominating these deposits, the market generally enters a phase of sales and rapid decline,” wrote in one of his blog articles “Quicktake” on Saturday.
“If the whales continue to drop the bitcoin to exchanges at the same rate, additional pressure on the price of bitcoin is expected.”
Bitcoin asks “still here” – Analysis
By examining the dynamics of demand more broadly, the cryptocer arrives at mixed conclusions, which should ultimately promote bulls.
In relation: Bitcoin Dip Making ‘Perfect Bottom’, will the analyst: BTC will be reduced to $ 148,000?
Although price volatility has led to rapid changes in Hodlers’ appetite to maintain the previous levels of exposure to the BTC, long -term trends show that bitcoin is firmly in demand.
“Some investors are probably starting to worry given the recent drop in prices, in particular the STH which are now obliged to make losses or hold underwater posts. To assess whether the situation could worse, the analysis of current demand is essential,” said the contributor Darkfost in an afternoon of “Quicktake”.
Darkfost reported the metric of the apparent demand, which measures newly undermined bitcoin to the supply that remained inactive during the past year.
“When the ratio drops below zero, this means that demand has become negative; conversely, when it exceeds zero, it signals a positive demand,” he summed up.
“Currently, demand remains clearly positive, with around 160,000 BTC accumulated in the past 30 days.”
The accumulation portfolios, which buy that BTC and have no outgoing transactions, increased the exposure of 50,000 BTC in the last month.
A longer -term view, covering over -the -counter transactions (OTC), also shows a clear trend. OTC Desk Holdings is now more than half a million BTC, compared to only 145,000 BTC in 2021.
“Whether we examine the short or long -term demand, the image remains largely positive,” concluded Darkfost.
“There is no major sign of demand indicators, despite the recent price volatility.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and negotiation movement involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when they make a decision.